A concrete canyon can create calamitous chaos of colossal consequences. Try saying that 10 times fast whilst putting in a lap, and you have the beginnings of understanding how difficult a race start is at Detroit Belle Isle.

Yes, its back, the street circuit that had consequences last year for a large chunk of the field. The only difference to 2023 is that it came before the endurance races, and left drivers with 3 rounds to get their points in order.

Dylan Rudd will be riding an absolute high on his way into this round. 2 races to go, over a race win in terms of points lead, and the ability to crown our 2024 champion prior to the final round! What could go wrong? Oh… I said it, didn’t I?

Walls, they are everywhere! Pace? That's found by being against the fences and using every millimetre of the road! Setup? You’re going to need to have a car that handles a lot of 90 degree turns, bumps, kerbs, all of it.

In 2022 this track sat in the same slot on the calendar. The difference this time around is that we’ve got 2 years of history in the rearview mirror and an understanding of the “bubble” to automatically qualify for the 2025 season and what that means for our drivers. For the bulk of the field that will be the focal point, and when you look at the numbers everyone from 13th placed Jordan Ross to 23rd placed Shawn McNamara has a realistic shot of being in or out.

For the rest, they’re going to need some dramatic numbers to find themselves not facing a run through the gauntlet of the Qualifying series in what we expect to be an unknown quantity in Gen 3. Tantalising! I love it!

That leaves us with a street circuit race that is going to provide a strong chance of someone being relegated, someone pulling a result from nowhere, and a championship on the cards all at once. Can you sense why my anxiety kicked up a few notches when this track got announced during the Bathurst 1000?

2023 Results

Format - Sprint Round - 2x 28 Laps (105km)
Pole Position - Brady Meyers 1:29.292
Race 1 Winner - Andrew Gilliam (first race win in the series)
Race 2 Winner - Madison Down
Round Winner - Madison Down

2022 Results

Format - Regular Round - 60 Laps (226km)
Pole Position - Jarrad Filsell 1:27.524
Race 1 Winner - Jarrad Filsell

Historically this is an event you have to navigate with precision on your way to a title. Navigating Race 2 last year correctly led Madison Down into the enduros with a bit of a comfort buffer he was able to build on and look to secure a title. 2022 saw Jarrad Filsell assert his dominance to win the title one round early.

Dylan Rudd will be looking to do that here this year, and by my math a 10th place finish guarantees him the title, with an 11th requiring a win from the only other contender in teammate Andrew Gilliam at both this race and the next.

Working in Gilliam’s favour is that he has been among the best driver’s at this track 2 years running, including his first win in the series in 2023. This is where we first started to really see the best Gilliam has to offer, and with that in mind it's very tough to go past his potential to win this race.

Synergy Sim Racing always tends to claim a speedy car on the more bumpy circuits and this will be the perfect opportunity to test their mettle. Jordan Ross, Adam Briggs and Tom Freer are the only three SSR cars that currently sit inside the automatic qualification positions for 2025. Ross and Briggs realistically just need to make it to the 75% marker of the race to earn their slots for next year, which will be at the end of 55 laps. Tom Freer sits 86 points ahead of the bubble so he will need to finish somewhere around the mid 20’s to place himself into a strong position before he focuses on finishing the race at Spa.

Critically, the driver who sits just on the inside of the bubble is Zach Rattray-White. His points total of 1308 is 32 behind the leading Rookie in Beau Albert, but based on trends I do expect him to more than outscore that difference over the remaining two rounds. For the chasing pack that then means their marker only becomes the Vermillion Esports driver if Rattray-White ends up in an incident, and don’t automatically count that out.

To the race and my thoughts on it. Well…Drama. This race has had its fair share of ordeals, trials and tribulations. Sometimes it feels like smacking your head against a concrete barrier as you try and make your way forwards, and other days you might just find yourself on the outside of the track boundaries, partaking in a beer with the race fans whilst you think back on the night that could have been.

Predictions time!

1. Open with the “safe” option, we will see the Safety Car and it will impact the running order of the field.
   
   
2. Luke Rosella had some banter with me the other night that suggested that there has been some work on Lobs Esports engine program. I still expect 1 Lobs car to not make the finish line at a minimum. My gut feeling is saying Griffin Gardiner, he’s been quite lucky of late and it's probably his turn.
   
   
3. Tempers and temperament will be tested in the mid field. Leaving your run to find yourself inside the automatic qualification positions to the final round is too late. The only problem with this prediction is that the drivers that are in contention are also the level heads in the field. Probably going to get this wrong.
   
   
4. Least overtakes of the season. Difficulty is high, but tire deg tends to be a bigger factor in the current package. This is the longest race we have run here at an expanded 73 laps, or 275km, could that lead to drama when someone runs super long on the stops?
   
   
5. Dylan Rudd has never had this level of pressure on him before, nerves or a small mistake gets the better of him and the championship goes to the final round. I’m not doom and glooming this prediction, I just think he doesn’t do enough to get the job done here. Pitstop/strategy mistake, under driving the car too much to score the points leads to a minor error. Mathematical possibility style stuff whereby the result is Gilliam must win and Rudd must not finish, but its still not over until Rudd banks at least 149 points from the remaining two races.

Out of all of the races for the season this tends to be the one most worth watching. The biggest change to these cars in the last several years is the New Damage Model, and if there is ever going to be a place that tests this system it's going to be Detroit Belle Isle.

Join us Wednesday night from 7.30pm AEDT over on our streams to find out if we can put the championship to bed, or if it goes down to the decider!