A couple of key points heading into Watkins were kerb changes and the new damage model. They’re both still here, relevant, and everywhere you look in sim racing at the moment, however, the big kicker is the team shuffling.

When you rewind back to the start of the year, the thought I kept coming to was “this isn’t done yet”.

Someone’s dealt out a new hand in the driver shuffle and it's going to take another few months to settle down and resolve itself again.

Well, enough about that we’re off to Elkhart Lake in Wisconsin!

You only have to look back to the tail end of last year to see how this place really changed the outcome of the championship. Great rulebook and strategy awareness of the Trans Tasman Racing outfit hammered home a super strong result that put Madison Down into a nearly unassailable position. There was so much more drama that bubbled under the surface on that night, and it led to the formation of the Lobs Esports drivers that now are driving out of their skins.

Road America as a venue though has been so critical to deciding championships over the long history of Australian V8 Supercar Sim Racing. Historically it plays host to our Grand Final and is thought of by the drivers with the same amount of significance.

The best part about this circuit is the fact you cannot have a car that is great in all areas. You’re either going to run a bit more wing and stability and look for long run speed, as well as consistency through the carousel and the kink and lose that little bit of an edge in a straight line, or you are going to trim the car right out and look for the straight line edge yet again.

If you look at the difference in our biggest teams and the way they approach their car setups, there’s some divergent takes on best balance. Lobs Esports have tended to take the “go fast and pass em on the straights” approach, Trans Tasman are phenomenal in the high downforce sections, and Synergy Sim Racing handle the bumps and mechanical grip sections really well. Keep all those tips in mind as you watch the progression.

This race has a bit of overtaking, a large amount of strategy, a little bit of safety car potential to just change something somewhere. One of the better parts of the Formula 1 race from over the weekend was the change to bring gravel and consequences back into play, well Road America only has run off room in two places, and not a lot of room for error anywhere else. Touch the grass at the kink on the back straight and all of a sudden it's just about keeping the car out of the fence.

Lobs Esports drivers were very quick in qualifying last year, Filsell took pole by two tenths of a second on a very cold track. Grip was super high for both qualifying and the start, and similar conditions are on the cards for this year. I expect the track to be a touch higher to start and continue to climb throughout the race. Drivers who have a good cold track car and are going to potentially struggle to hold onto their tires and striking a balance is going to be key.

I’m going to predict that the New Damage Model’s effects haven’t settled as yet and everyone is still adjusting, bringing the Safety Car into play. Fuel burn is going to be right around a 23 lap tank, and with saving could see this extended to 25 at the most, further than that and you are really going to struggle for the lap time and to hold position.

Expect tire fall off and wear to be around one second for every 10 laps, and another key point in the strategy game is if we end up with a long run to the end of your race the Safety Car chance drops off as everyone moves into conservation mode and stops racing as hard.

Form guide suggests again to pick a Lobs driver to win, but I think this is going to be a lot closer than people think. Timing of the strategy and the smartest heads in the room could be a bigger factor, and this race comes down to having a fast car and the best race brains to match!

I’m also a bit worried about the Evolution Racing Team driver Ethan Grigg-Gault. If this was a game of tennis he’d have lost the match by now just on his amount of unforced errors. Its extremely out of character for him and I just wonder if something else isn’t going on. He’s now got two DNF’s combined with a finish with a damaged car back at Sebring. He sits 19th in points and still in contention for an automatic qualifying spot for next year, but I don’t think he can get away with another error of his own making. For me he’s just got to take points this week, and probably every week to the end of the championship, but Ethan’s also not the kind of driver to just have a quiet finish if he can have a win instead.

Righto, Voodoo magic time! We’ve cursed people just about every race this series and this could be another one.

Well who did we curse this time? Who are your predictions for Road America?

Feel free to hit me up on social media or discord, I want to hear from our fans!!!

See you all Wednesday night!