With Emily Jones, Kody Deith and Dylan Birse all locked in via their wins, we also have 2 drivers that are locked in on points and don’t even require points from the final race. Jacob O’Reilly and Brenton Hobson are more than 190 points ahead of 21st place Tao Soerono. Now a win is normally worth 200 points, but with a win guaranteeing your spot you can only make up 2nd place worth of points, or 190.

So now we move to the analysis of the battle for the bubble. Who is in, who is out?

This is where the focus is going to be tomorrow night. The margins on the bubble itself are actually fairly large for 3 rounds, and that reflects the up and down nature of the series thus far.

Once you get over the bubble the points actually close up. 24 points covers 6 drivers from 22nd to 27th. So should Ben Faulkner and Tao Soerono both have bad nights, that 20th Points spot becomes exceptionally spicy! Anyone from the top 20 gets the final win, and that pushes the pressure point from being on Faulkner to Soerono. Expect the win to be a critical factor to this battle for the bubble!

Drivers that have the pace to be in and aren’t are plenty. Richie Stanaway sits 26th after missing a round, Michael Talijancich was a recipient of a Golden Ticket for 2024’s pro series and he’s on the outside looking in. Add to these names Dylan Perera (retirement in Race 1), Jobe Stewart (only made 1 race thus far), and Tom Freer (pedal failure at Hockenheim) and there’s actually a lot of drivers not going to make the series.

The win and in changes that script though. Realistically its only going to be the top 25 who are a feasible chance of pointing their way in, and anyone else is a mathematical and race result oddity. Can you imagine a world where Stanaway is able to make the final race and wins it? Who else can take that win from nowhere?

Well its Winton that plays host to the final round. If you had said to me this was the case in Gen2 chassis, I’d say we’re in for a snooze fest. Marbles, low aero and a car that moves around a lot more changes that significantly.

Chatting to Tyson Broad (18th in points) from Orbit Drop Bear and he’s been on struggle street this week with prep work for Winton. Early work on setups was a struggle for front end bite and he generally struggles at Winton in general. Could this be a driver that moves from inside the bubble to out?

Strategy and undercuts are going to be supremely important to this track where the tires never get a break. Clear air on that undercut will also be critical. With so much run off (albeit grass run off) and we might finally get our first race without a Safety Car… Then again, the tight nature is absolutely going to trend towards more paint traded.

The big key for the guys in the top 15 will be “get a clean result on the board and we’re good to go” whilst everyone else is going to scrap for their lives.

See it all play out tomorrow night from 7.45pm AEDT.